IPCC AR6解读：全球和区域海平面变化的监测和预估     

张通  俞永强  效存德  华莉娟  闫展 《气候变化研究进展》2022,18(1):12-18

IPCC第六次评估报告第一工作组报告第九章综合评估了与海平面相关的最新监测和数值模拟结果,指出目前（2006—2018年）的海平面上升速率处于加速状态（3.7 mm/a),并会在未来持续上升,且呈现不可逆的趋势。其中低排放情景（SSP1-1.9）和高排放情景（SSP5-8.5）下,到2050年,预估全球平均海平面（GMSL）分别上升0.15~0.23 m和0.20~0.30 m;到2100年,预估GMSL分别上升0.28~0.55 m和0.63~1.02 m。南极冰盖不稳定性是影响未来海平面上升预估的最大不确定性来源之一。区域海平面变化是影响沿海极端静水位的重要因素。  相似文献   

不同测算方法下行程时间不确定性对可达性的影响分析     

肖中圣  许奇  毛保华  魏润斌  冯佳 《地球信息科学学报》2022,24(11):2102-2114

行程时间不确定性导致了可达性随时间的变化,相关研究表明忽略行程时间不确定性会高估可达性水平。既有可达性研究往往用行程时间可靠性表示行程时间不确定性,但未考虑不同可达性模型结果的差异以及行程时间可靠性价值。本文结合各OD之间的行程时间分布特征,构建方差型的行程时间可靠性来描述行程时间不确定性,并进一步将行程时间可靠性纳入到广义出行时间成本中,建立了时间距离模型、潜力模型、累计机会模型和高斯模型4种基于位置的可达性测算方法,以比较在不同测算方法下,行程时间不确定性对可达性的影响。深圳的案例研究表明：① 忽略行程时间不确定性会使全区域的可达性至少被高估5.04%,最大被高估95.04%。潜力模型、时间距离模型、累计机会模型和高斯模型的高估幅度由低到高;② 行程时间不确定性对可达性的影响存在阈值效应,阈值越高,可达性受影响的程度越小;③ 从空间分布来看,行程时间不确定性对可达性水平高和低的区域都有一定影响。若不考虑行程时间不确定性,可达性高的区域高估值大,而在可达性低的区域,可达性高估的百分比较大,高估百分比中位数的差异程度最大可达77.1%;④ 行程时间不确定性对潜力模型可达性分类的影响最小,对累计机会模型差异的影响最大。可达性使用者应充分考虑研究区域实际情况,结合可解释性与理论性偏好,进而选择合适的可达性模型和评判标准。  相似文献   

东营凹陷古近系成岩层序特征与储集差异性分析   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

邱桂强 《沉积学报》2007,25(6):915-922

根据对东营凹陷油气储层成岩规律的分析,结合层序地层单元的分布构架,发现成岩演化过程所决定的成岩相特征与层序地层分布有密切相关性。阐述了在层序界面附近和层序体内部成岩作用发生的一般规律,认识到油气储层的储集性受成岩相和成岩层序控制。认为东营凹陷古近系近期勘探所取得的一系列成果,与成岩作用的差异性有关。将储层储集特征和成岩层序特征有机结合,合理地解释了凹陷内油气富集规律。说明该区油气勘探工作必须有的放矢,科学布局,循序追踪,才能获得最佳勘探效果。  相似文献   

Modelling linear wave transformation induced by dissipative structures—Random waves     

R. Silva  M.A. Losada  P. Salles 《Ocean Engineering》2006,33(16):2174-2194

The relevant theory is presented and numerical results are compared with the analytical solution for the interaction of non-breaking waves with an array of vertical porous circular cylinders on a horizontal bed. The extension to the cases of unidirectional and multidirectional waves is obtained by means of a transfer function. The influence of the mechanical properties of porous structures and wave irregularity on wave transformation is analysed. Results for unidirectional and multidirectional wave spectra are compared to those obtained for regular waves. The model presented reproduces well the analytical results and provides a tool for analysing several engineering problems.  相似文献   

The South East Regional Marine Plan: Implementing Australia's Oceans Policy     

Joanna Vince 《Marine Policy》2006

In 1998, the Australian Government released Australia's Oceans Policy (AOP), a world first policy initiative focused on providing a framework for integrated ecosystem-based management of Australia's vast marine domain. The South East Regional Marine Plan, the first regional marine plan to be implemented under AOP, was released on 21 May 2004. This paper argues that although full integration across sectors and jurisdictions has not occurred, new AOP initiatives, institutions and governance processes have considerably increased sectoral and jurisdictional coordination in the South East region.  相似文献   

On the recent warming of the southeastern Bering Sea shelf   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

P.J. Stabeno  N.A. Bond  S.A. Salo 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2007,54(23-26):2599

During the last decade, the southeastern Bering Sea shelf has undergone a warming of 3 °C that is closely associated with a marked decrease of sea ice over the area. This shift in the physical environment of the shelf can be attributed to a combination of mechanisms, including the presence over the eastern Bering Sea shelf of a relatively mild air mass during the winter, especially from 2000 to 2005; a shorter ice season caused by a later fall transition and/or an earlier spring transition; increased flow through Unimak Pass during winter, which introduces warm Gulf of Alaska water onto the southeastern shelf; and the feedback mechanism whereby warmer ocean temperatures during the summer delay the southward advection of sea ice during winter. While the relative importance of these four mechanisms is difficult to quantify, it is evident that for sea ice to form, cold arctic winds must cool the water column. Sea ice is then formed in the polynyas during periods of cold north winds, and this ice is advected southward over the eastern shelf. The other three mechanisms can modify ice formation and melt, and hence its extent. In combination, these four mechanisms have served to temporally and spatially limit ice during the 5-year period (2001–2005). Warming of the eastern Bering Sea shelf could have profound influences on the ecosystem of the Bering Sea—from modification of the timing of the spring phytoplankton bloom to the northward advance of subarctic species and the northward retreat of arctic species.  相似文献   

Fine resolution 3D temperature fields off Kerguelen from instrumented penguins     

Jean-Benoît Charrassin  Young-Hyang Park  Yvon Le Maho  Charles-Andr Bost 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2004,51(12):2091-2103

The use of diving animals as autonomous vectors of oceanographic instruments is rapidly increasing, because this approach yields cost-efficient new information and can be used in previously poorly sampled areas. However, methods for analyzing the collected data are still under development. In particular, difficulties may arise from the heterogeneous data distribution linked to animals’ behavior. Here we show how raw temperature data collected by penguin-borne loggers were transformed to a regular gridded dataset that provided new information on the local circulation off Kerguelen. A total of 16 king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) were equipped with satellite-positioning transmitters and with temperature–time–depth recorders (TTDRs) to record dive depth and sea temperature. The penguins’ foraging trips recorded during five summers ranged from 140 to 600 km from the colony and 11,000 dives >100 m were recorded. Temperature measurements recorded during diving were used to produce detailed 3D temperature fields of the area (0–200 m). The data treatment included dive location, determination of the vertical profile for each dive, averaging and gridding of those profiles onto 0.1°×0.1° cells, and optimal interpolation in both the horizontal and vertical using an objective analysis. Horizontal fields of temperature at the surface and 100 m are presented, as well as a vertical section along the main foraging direction of the penguins. Compared to conventional temperature databases (Levitus World Ocean Atlas and historical stations available in the area), the 3D temperature fields collected from penguins are extremely finely resolved, by one order finer. Although TTDRs were less accurate than conventional instruments, such a high spatial resolution of penguin-derived data provided unprecedented detailed information on the upper level circulation pattern east of Kerguelen, as well as the iron-enrichment mechanism leading to a high primary production over the Kerguelen Plateau.  相似文献   

Three-dimensional Layer-integrated Modelling of Estuarine Flows with Flooding and Drying   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

B. Lin  R.A. Falconer 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1997,44(6):737-751

Details are given of the refinement and application of a thee-dimensional (3-D) layer-integrated numerical model of tidal circulation, with the aim of simulating severe tidal conditions for practical engineering applications. The mode splitting strategy has been used in the model. A set of depth-integrated 2-D equations are first solved to give the pressure gradient, and the layer-integrated 3-D equations are then solved to obtain the vertical distributions of the flow velocities. Attention has been given to maintaining consistency of the physical quantities derived from the 2-D and 3-D equations. A TWO=layer mixing length turbulence model for the vertical shear stress distribution has been included in the model. Emphasis has been focused on applying the model to a real estuary, which is geometrically complicated and has large tidal ranges giving rise to extensive flooding and drying. The model has been applied to three examples, including: wind-driven flow in a rectangular lake, tidal circulation in a model rectangular harbour, and tidal circulation in a large estuary. Favourable results have been obtained for both the simple and complex flow beds.  相似文献   

Using the Mellor–Yamada mixing scheme in seasonally ice-covered seas—Corrigendum to: Parameterization of vertical mixing in the Weddell Sea [Ocean Modelling 6 (2004) 83–100]     

Ralph Timmermann  Martin Losch 《Ocean Modelling》2005,10(3-4):369-372

A coding error in the s-Coordinate Primitive Equation Model (SPEM) has led to misleading statements about the behaviour of the Mellor–Yamada level 2 parameterization of vertical mixing. It has been claimed that the scheme removes static instability only very slowly and preserves statically unstable stratifications for an unrealistic long time. This note corrects this statement by demonstrating that the Mellor–Yamada mixing scheme, if implemented correctly, tends to overestimate rather than underestimate vertical mixing in seasonally ice-covered seas. Similar to other mixing schemes with the same behaviour, this leads to spurious open ocean deep convection, an unrealistic homogenization of the water column, and a significant reduction of sea ice volume.  相似文献   

三峡及邻区晚第三纪以来构造应力场特征探讨     

贾永刚  单红仙 《海洋科学》1995,19(2):36-41

用三峡及邻区（东经１０８°～１１３°，北纬２９°～３３°）地质资料，地震资料，现 场地应力测量资料论证三峡及邻区晚第三纪以来构造应力场稳定性及其分区特 征。  相似文献